Variables Affecting Construction Cost Contingency: A Fuzzy Pairwise Methods Analysis

Abstract

Contingency costs play an important role during the construction phase, as accurately
estimating project contingency costs is one of the keys to successful project management. The
improper use of contingency costs can lead to various problems. In determining contingency
costs, practitioners have traditionally used a highly subjective approach. This study will
discuss the weights of variables that influence the magnitude of contingency costs. The risk
evaluation carried out focuses on risks related to project construction execution. The use of
fuzzy logic with the weight risk analysis method is considered highly appropriate due to the
many advantages of fuzzy logic analysis, which can help make risk analysis more objective.
The study respondents consist of 12 experts from 6 reviewed construction projects. The
analysis reveals that internal variables, such as Safety, Personnel, and Equipment and
Material, have a greater impact on contingency costs compared to external variables. Safety
ranks highest with a weight of 0.223, followed by Personnel at 0.209 and Equipment and
Material at 0.171. External variables, including Natural and Social Variables, have lower
weights of 0.101 and 0.073, respectively, indicating their smaller influence compared to
internal factors.